Research
Research
My research focuses on public finance, tax policy, and economic history, with particular emphasis on state and local taxation, corporate tax policy, and the historical development of tax systems in America.
Job Market Paper
The Impact of Single Sales Factor Apportionment on State Tax Revenues: Short- and Long-Run Effects [SSRN Working Paper] | [Online Appendix] | [Plot Appendix]
Abstract: Since 1978, forty U.S. states changed the formulas determining their corporate income tax bases. The most common change has been from a definition of taxable corporate income consisting of payroll, property, and sales within the state, to one consisting solely of sales (“Single Sales Factor Apportionment”). This paper estimates the effects of these changes on a state’s taxable corporate income. Descriptive evidence suggests that taxable corporate income increases initially following the policy adoption; however, using a combination of two-way fixed effects, difference-in-differences, and synthetic approaches, I estimate that corporate income generally remains unchanged or declines over time, with most effects negative but statistically insignificant.
Working Papers
Tobacco Tariffs in the Colonial Chesapeake
Abstract: From 1616 through the Revolutionary War (1775–1783), colonial governors and the English Crown levied tariffs on tobacco produced and exported from the colonies of Maryland and Virginia. The colonies imposed export tariffs, and England imposed import tariffs. Tariffs provided revenue for colonial administration and defense and, in its peak year, represented about 7 percent of English tax revenue. In this paper I analyze how export and import tariffs affected the price and volume of tobacco trade between colonial Maryland and Virginia and England, as well as the distribution of the burden of those tariffs. Although the point estimate suggests elastic demand, it is imprecisely estimated. Elasticity-based incidence estimates indicate that approximately 89 percent of the tariff burden was borne by consumers in Europe, allowing the Crown to raise revenue without significantly discouraging colonial production or migration. These estimates illuminate the fiscal constraints faced by the British Crown and provide context on one of the financial incentives for Britain’s decision to sustain control of the colonies through the Revolutionary War.
This research was supported by an Early-Stage Dissertation Grant from the Economic History Association.
Do Baby Bonuses Increase Fertility? Evidence From Michigan
with Jonathan Hartley
Abstract: This paper measures the fertility effects of the first baby bonus introduced in Michigan, which is the first baby bonus introduced in the United States. We find that birth growth rates increased significantly in the treated region during the first year of the policy compared to control regions. We also present a version of the Barro-Becker model with a baby bonus.
Tax Abatements for Data Centers and Government Output: Short-Run Effects on Public Sector Activity
Abstract: State and local governments use tax abatements to attract data centers, which are capital-intensive facilities with relatively low employment. Prior research on tax incentives has documented positive and negative spillovers depending upon the duration of the firm’s tenure, the size of the abatement or subsidy, and the type of firm. This paper estimates the effects of data center location on local government and sector-specific output per capita from attracting data centers through tax abatements. Using a panel dataset of 135 tax abatements granted by 44 counties in 20 states over the past 20 years, I estimate that a tax abatement for a data center led to an increase in government sector output in the year following the incentive. This increase persists into the second year, suggesting modest short-term fiscal changes to the locality. Analysis of county financial data shows no significant increase in tax collections but a marginally significant rise in debt borrowing, indicating that short-run fiscal impacts reflect accommodation costs financed through debt rather than tax base expansion.
The Net Present Value of the Billionaire Tax Act: An Assessment of the Fiscal Effects of California’s Proposed Wealth Tax
with Joshua D. Rauh, Greg Kearney, John Doran, and Matheus Cosso
Abstract: This report examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent excise tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion as of January 1, 2026. While proponents project approximately $100 billion in collections, we estimate roughly $40 billion in actual wealth tax revenue. Accounting for lost future income tax contributions from billionaires who depart the state, we find a net negative fiscal impact of approximately $25 billion.
Wealth Tax Primer
with Joshua D. Rauh, Matheus Cosso, and John Doran
Abstract: This primer examines the administrative, empirical, and economic case against wealth taxation at the state and national levels. Wealth taxes emerged in earlier fiscal systems where tangible, immobile assets were the most feasible tax base. As financial markets expanded and capital became more mobile, advanced economies shifted toward income and consumption taxes, and most countries that experimented with modern wealth taxes ultimately repealed them after encountering administrative complexity, capital flight, and limited revenues. Drawing on historical and empirical evidence, we document that wealth tax revenue estimates lack credibility because these estimates rely on untested assumptions about asset valuation and taxpayer behavior. High-income and high-net-worth taxpayers are particularly responsive to wealth taxation, so subsequent adoption of wealth taxes by jurisdictions lead to the erosion of the wealth tax and other tax bases, in addition to political pressure to expand the scope of the tax over time. Wealth taxes also distort incentives to save, invest, and build businesses, with implications for long-term capital formation and economic growth for the adopting jurisdictions.
Dissertation
Borders and Burdens: Three Essays on Inter-jurisdictional Tax Policy in America
Ph.D. Dissertation, Clemson University
Policy Writing
For shorter policy analysis and commentary, visit my Substack.
Last updated: March 2026